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Swings and roundabouts: New population projections a distraction for growth areas

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) today released its latest 2016-based sub-national population projections (SNPP). The 2016-based SNPP will form the basis for the 2016-based household projections, currently scheduled for release this September.

The household projections are set to take on an even greater significance following the introduction of the Government’s proposed simplification of the method for calculating housing needs.

The release of the 2016-based SNPP provides an early indication of the direction of travel in the forthcoming household projections, and consequently the future levels of housing need that authorities may be required to plan for.

Reliance on household projections means that the proposed standard method will be exposed to the swings which are a consistent feature of trend-based projections. This will present an ever greater challenge for Local Plans which look to set long-term strategies for future housing provision.  There also exists an inherent risk that authorities interpret the projection as a reason to plan for fewer homes, which clearly contrasts with the view held by Government and others that more homes must be built to reconcile the long-term failure to provide enough housing.

The release of the 2016-based household projections this September will represent a key milestone, falling within a six month period of transition ahead of the anticipated implementation of the proposed standard method from January 2019. The industry has debated the merits of the new approach at length. The impact of the official projections may result in a fall in calculated need across much of the country, which – when set in the context of an acknowledged housing crisis – will further fuel this debate.

Spatial Implications

A comparison of the projected change in population under the 2016-based SNPP when compared to the 2014-based dataset which they replace illustrates the volatility described above, and is shown in the following map.

Sub-national population projections map

This reveals:

  • A general trend of a reduction in projected growth across many authorities. Only 71 authorities (22%) are projected to grow at a faster rate;
     
  • That of these 71 authorities, half are located in the South East, South West and East of England, but none are in London. There have also been increases in parts of the Midlands – affecting 21 authorities – and the North, where 15 authorities receive an uplifted projection.
     
  • A high degree of volatility in the sub-national projections, as has previously been the case. This is most pronounced in Oxford, for example, where the earlier projection of a growth of over 9,300 additional people has been dramatically reduced to the extent that a marginal fall of 13 people is now anticipated by 2026. At the opposite end of the scale, the Liverpool City Region sees a notably more positive picture, with the population of Knowsley now projected to grow at almost double the rate and Liverpool’s population projected to grow by a further 9,000 people relative to the 2014-based SNPP.
     
  • The inherent limitations of trend-based projections as a tool for planning for future need. This is illustrated when looking at those areas singled out by the Government as driving the UK’s future economic growth. The growth corridor linking Oxford, Cambridge and Milton Keynes and large parts of the Northern Powerhouse have seen reductions in the level of population growth projected. This is in no doubt an impact of low rates of recent housing provision, rather than an indicator of the need that will be associated with their success in generating new employment opportunities.  

For a discussion on how the release of the 2016-based SNPP and the proposed introduction of a new standard method for calculating housing needs may affect you, please contact Antony Pollard or Andrew Lowe.

24 May 2018

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