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Rising population estimates emphasise urgent need for new homes

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning released its latest population estimates.

This provides an updated official position on the population both nationally and at local authority level, reflecting the estimated size of the population in mid-2016 – around the time of last year’s EU referendum.

The estimates show that England’s population has continued to grow at a faster rate than projected under the 2014-based sub-national population projections (SNPP), which underpin the ‘starting point’ for establishing the objectively assessed need (OAN) for housing in local authorities across England. This reaffirms the significant need for new housing nationally, and highlights the importance of the Government delivering against its commitment to ‘build the homes we need faster’ as set out in this year’s Housing White Paper and reasserted in yesterday’s Queen’s Speech.

Understanding where population growth has exceeded or not reached that projected by the 2014-based SNPP provides an indication of the potential direction of travel in the new projections to be released next year at a more local level. Our plan below identifies local authorities with a 2016 population higher or lower than projected by the 2014-based SNPP.

Our headline analysis reveals:

  • At the UK level, the 0.8% growth rate over the latest year (2015/16) is similar to the annual average seen since 2005. Net international migration is the main driver of population growth, although there was an increase in births and fewer deaths compared to last year.

  • In 2016, the population of England was 49,370 persons higher than projected by the 2014-based SNPP, although this represents a comparatively low level of variance (+0.1%).

  • The population of London has not grown to the extent anticipated by the 2014-based SNPP, with the 2016 population circa 44,476 persons lower than projected. The population of London in 2016 was therefore 0.5% lower than projected.

  • Nationally, this is offset by the higher level of population growth estimated outside London, with 93,846 more people living outside the capital in 2016 than projected by the 2014-based SNPP.

  • At a local authority level, the greatest underestimates are implied in Manchester (+6,325 relative to projection), Liverpool (+5,785), Nottingham (+5,226), Southampton (+3,468) and Aylesbury Vale (+3,250).

The population trends reflected in the latest population estimates will inform the development of the new 2016-based projections, scheduled for release in May to June 2018. Turley will monitor and update on the implications of this and associated datasets upon release. For a discussion on how this might affect you, please contact Andrew Lowe or Antony Pollard.

22 June 2017