Comment
Politics and planning: what to look out for in the South West in 2023
Local and regional planning policy changes, together with elections and likely changes in political leadership in authorities across the South West, will create challenges and opportunities for planning and development. Marley Bennett, who has recently joined our Strategic Communications team, bringing with him in-depth knowledge of local politics in the South West, considers what those changes might be and what impact this could have in the year ahead.
Plans scrapped and consultations launched
Proposals for a West of England Strategic Plan have been scrapped once again, whilst Bristol City Council has launched consultation on its Local Plan.
The West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Spatial Development Strategy (SDS) was due to set development requirements and locations for growth, meeting regional needs for jobs and housing across Bath & North East Somerset, Bristol, and South Gloucestershire.
Earlier this year, WECA Metro Mayor, Labour’s Dan Norris, said it was impossible to progress the plans as the Conservative leader of South Gloucestershire, Cllr Toby Savage, had walked out of the talks. This claim is disputed by Cllr Savage, who maintains the Metro Mayor was not willing to properly discuss the strategy, which proposed 37,000 new homes in South Gloucestershire – 9,000 more than the standard Government calculation. This demonstrates the difficulty of delivering strategic spatial plans where there is a mix of political party representation, and no shared unified aspiration for a region. Of course, imminent elections in South Gloucestershire will be a factor too.
What does this mean?
This is the second time a proposed regional plan has been unsuccessful, after a proposed Joint Spatial Plan (JSP), which at the time also included North Somerset, was rejected by Planning Inspectors in 2019 and then abandoned. This second collapse will have implications on those authorities who would have been expected to ensure that their Local Plans, Development Plans and Neighbourhood Plans were in general conformity with the strategy.
With the SDS now unlikely to progress much further, it falls on each authority to identify their own requirements for development individually. Local Plans for Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, and South Gloucestershire will provide the strategic planning framework for the WECA area, but from an individual area’s perspective rather than the region as a whole.
Whilst there is still uncertainty at a national level, at a regional level Bristol City Council has been consulting on updates to its Local Plan since November. One of the changes the council is proposing is a significantly lower housing target than the Government’s standard method calculation, which includes the 35% urban centre uplift that has been in place since December 2020, setting the target at 3,376 dwellings a year.
Bristol City Council unanimously approved a motion to consult on a lower target after councillors argued the city is already densely built-up, with the standard target being far in excess of what has been delivered in recent decades, that suitable (re-)development on brownfield land is already being progressed whilst remaining greenspace within the city limits needs to be retained. Bristol’s draft plan assessed household growth, migration uplift, and the historic undersupply of housing and calculated a Housing Need of 2,600 dwellings a year. Feedback on the draft Local Plan will be considered before it is published and submitted for examination.
Whether the Planning Inspectorate will accept an authority proposing a lower housing target is still unknown. The proposed updates to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), published on the 22 December, make clear that the Government expects the urban uplift be met within cities’ boundaries (for more information on NPPF reforms, please see our latest series). If Bristol’s lower target isn’t accepted, will work on Bristol’s Local Plan have to completely start again, how long will this delay the new plan, and what does this mean for development in the meantime?
If a lower housing target in Bristol is accepted, will this mean neighbouring authorities will then be expected to work towards higher housing targets, in not too dissimilar a fashion proposed by WECA’s ditched SDS, or will targets be reduced across the West of England region? Given the decades of undersupply of new housing in the region leading to high property prices that are particularly extreme in Bristol, lower delivery would have severe consequences for people hoping to buy a new home or rent.
What changes can we expect in leadership this year?
All-out elections will be held this year in the three unitary authorities neighbouring Bristol: Bath and North East Somerset; North Somerset; and South Gloucestershire, which could have a significant impact on leadership in the region. Given the small Conservative majority on South Gloucestershire Council and current opinion polling showing a significant drop in Conservative support since 2019, when the last election took place, Cllr Savage would have to exceed expectations to protect his majority and remain leader.
It’s harder to predict how the current Rainbow Coalition in North Somerset, currently led by Independent Cllr Steve Bridger, or the Liberal Democrat administration in Bath & North East Somerset will be affected, given the difficulty of applying trends in national opinion polling to these contests. Whatever the outcome, the very fact of the elections will begin to have an impact on development proposals as potential candidates look to the election and potentially controversial schemes could be used as election campaign tools.
Looking further south, Somerset County Council and the four District Councils, Mendip, Sedgemoor, Somerset West & Taunton, and South Somerset are all to be subsumed into a new single unitary authority, called Somerset Council, from April. Elections for the new Somerset Council took place in May 2022 with the Liberal Democrats winning 61 of the 110 seats, meaning the new authority will be led by Cllr Bill Revans (currently a councillor for Sedgemoor). It will be interesting to see how people respond to the new council given that, of the quarter of Somerset residents who cast a ballot in a non-binding referendum in 2021, 65% wanted to keep the two-tier system.
In Bristol, there is currently only one by-election for a single member ward scheduled for the 2 February, with all-out elections due in 2024. That will be the first election under a Committee System that will replace the current Mayoral System after the change was backed by voters in a referendum last year, also on a low turnout of 29%. Work to design the new Committee System is still ongoing, including consultation with Bristolians on how the new system should work.
So, what does this all mean for planning and development?
Once the dust settles from the elections this May, we will have a better idea of who will be responsible for development planning in the South West. It may take longer still for us to discover whether the West of England authorities can ever agree on a strategic plan for the region, or if each authority having their own plan will be accepted.
Nationally, it’s unlikely that the Government will make it to the end of 2023 without being forced to decide whether it is going to prioritise keeping its backbench MPs happy or meeting its housing commitments.
For more information please contact Marley Bennett.
25 January 2023