Comment
Local Elections 2018: review
Prior to the elections on 3 May, we provided an internal briefing on 11 councils to watch. Here we review the results, see how the parties performed and how we did with our predictions.
Overall, not a huge amount changed, which tends to suggest it was a better result for the governing party than the one that wants to govern. So whilst Labour has by far the most councillors and councils in this set of local authorities, they didn’t make the sort of gains some members were predicting nor those that they need to make to become the largest party in the House of Commons (let alone to secure a majority).
Labour did win some important local battles, but they also lost some, and whilst they strengthened their hold on most of London they did not take any councils, including Barnet which was well within reach.
The Conservatives did better than they and most people were expecting, retaining Barnet (it had gone to No Overall Control (NOC) but only as a result of the selection process immediately prior to the election), and holding onto their London heartlands. They even made gains in some places and took control in others where UKIP had been strong.
The Liberal Democrats had a reasonable night, starting from a low base (the last elections were in 2014 while they were in government) they won 4 councils, Richmond, Kingston upon Thames, South Cambridgeshire and Three Rivers.
UKIP predictably had a terrible night losing all but one of their councillors. Where these votes went determined much of the success on the night for other parties.
1. Amber Valley
Before: Conservative majority
After: Conservative majority
Did we get it right? Yes
The Conservative Party did better than we expected on 3 May, making three gains to one loss. Amber Valley has traditionally been a bellwether seat and this result was telling; Labour gained a seat from the Conservatives in relatively wealthy, bohemian Belper, but lost three to the Conservatives in working class, mining towns Heanor and Ripley.
2. Derby City
Before: Labour majority
After: Conservative minority (No overall control)
Did we get it right? Yes
Most people didn’t predict the shock result in Derby City, but we did. The unitary council went into no overall control and lost its Leader, Ranjit Banwait, as we predicted.
Where voting trends across the country have seen Labour and the Conservatives exchange appeal amongst blue and white collar workers, Derby City Council Labour group’s unpopularity saw them lose their potential affluent social class gains to the Lib Dems. Liberal Democrats will be particularly happy about this result.
3. Barnet
Before: Conservative minority
After: Conservative majority
Did we get it right? No
Whilst we thought that the Conservative position was stronger than many, we and most thought Barnet would be Labour following the election.
4. Basildon
Before: UKIP, Labour and Independent coalition (NOC)
After: Conservative majority
Did we get it right? Yes
In the run up to the election, the media focussed mainly on potential Labour Party gains, but in many areas the collapse of UKIP was a bigger issue. This was expected in Basildon and proved correct.
The Conservatives benefited from UKIP losing five seats and gained control of the council from the ‘anyone but the Conservatives’ UKIP, Labour and Independent coalition that was in place before the election. This was the sort of win that the Government’s support for Brexit should have delivered for the Conservatives who previously ran the council from 2003-2014.
5. Dudley
Before: Minority Conservative (NOC)
After: Conservative majority
Did we get it right? Yes
We highlighted the collapse of UKIP as a possible catalyst for change in administration in Dudley, and on the day six out of seven UKIP seats were gained by the Conservatives. The final gain required to secure a Conservative majority was made through a UKIP defection at full council, almost two weeks after election day.
6. Haringey
Before: Labour majority
After: Labour majority
Did we get it right? N/A
There was no change to the political control in Haringey, and it wasn’t expected. The Labour stronghold was identified in our previous article due to factional infighting within the Labour party which had seen the former Leader, Claire Kober, resign earlier in 2018. We knew prior to the election that Momentum would play a large part shaping the next Labour administration; we just needed to wait and see the new Cabinet to see the extent of the change.
Following the election, the local Labour members voted on their preference for Leader and opted for Zena Brabazon over Joseph Ejiofor, former Deputy Leader of the council. However, the Labour members on the council then chose to disregard this and back Cllr Ejiofor as Leader. At first glance this may seem like the battle for a more moderate, central council but Cllr Ejiofor sits on a national Momentum committee and is certainly no Blairite himself.
The new Leader has already made an impact, only appointing two councillors with Cabinet experience and picking three with no previous experience as a councillor at all.
7. Trafford
Before: Conservative majority
After: Minority Labour (NOC)
Did we get it right? No
This was one Labour’s big wins of the local elections, when they became the largest single party (but without a majority). They have since formed a minority administration, and have an agreement of support from the Liberal Democrats.
New Leader Cllr Andrew Western has already written to Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, about the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) stating that he will not support any legislation that results in housebuilding on Flixton’s Green Belt. Whilst protecting Green Belt has always been on Trafford Labour’s agenda, this could also be tied to a confidence-and-supply agreement with either the Greens or Liberal Democrats.
8. Wandsworth
Before: Conservative majority
After: Conservative majority
Did we get it right? No
Whilst Labour made some gains, the final result in Wandsworth was a Conservative majority in a Conservative flagship authority. We highlighted that this authority would tell us a lot about the national picture and it did. Labour didn’t make anything like the progress it expected to or it needs to if it wants to run the country. Indeed, if the results in Battersea were repeated in a General Election, the Conservatives would win the constituency back.
9. Westminster City
Before: Conservative majority
After: Conservative majority
Did we get it right? Yes
Expecting great things in Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea, Labour ended up making next to no progress.
10. Walsall
Before: Minority Labour (NOC)
After: Minority Conservative (NOC)
Did we get it right? Partially
Whilst the results seem uninteresting at first glance, the Conservatives gained five seats making them the largest party, changing the composition significantly and leaving them just one seat from taking majority control.
Expect turbulent times in Walsall as a power struggle will set the agenda for the foreseeable future. The Conservatives are using the Mayor’s casting vote as a means of operating with an effective majority at the moment, but they need to be prepared for a challenging year before heading to the polls again in 2019.
11. Stockport
Before: Labour minority (NOC)
After: Labour minority (NOC)
Did we get it right? Yes
Labour gained seats on Stockport Council, as we predicted. As Stockport continues to become more metropolitan, and more affluent, expect the appeal of Labour to continue to rise.
Conclusion
Politics starts and does not end with elections; the next stage is to understand the ramifications of these results and how they will have an impact on our clients. If you would like input on the political situation in an area of one of your projects, please do not hesitate to get in touch with our Strategic Communications team.
29 May 2018