Comment

A familiar story: Basingstoke and Deane seeking to justify a lower level of housing need

Across the country we are witnessing Local Plans being paused or withdrawn due to the political inertia regarding planning reforms. Many authorities have pulled up the drawbridge and either ceased, paused or slowed work on new Local Plans.

The ongoing suggestion that “top down” housing targets are shortly to be scrapped has clearly fuelled these decisions, and we understand that any proposed changes to the planning system have been pushed back until after the publication of the Chancellor’s “medium term fiscal plan” on 31 October. An all too familiar story, particularly in the south-east.  

Basingstoke and Deane 

The latest authority to do this is Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council, who have pulled their eagerly-awaited Local Plan review back from the brink of consultation – it was originally scheduled to run this autumn/winter. The consultation has now been delayed for a year “to allow extra time for planners to identify the true level of local need for new homes.”^[1] This will consequently now push back the adoption of the Local Plan until autumn 2025.

In the paper that was considered by the council’s cabinet, the delay is justified to allow for time to “relook at housing numbers for the borough, reflecting upon local circumstances.” In a press release, Cllr Jay Ganesh said:

“I have heard loud and clear from the councillors representing our local communities, that extreme housing growth in Basingstoke and Deane needs to slow down so there is a much more sustainable future.”

The standard methodology currently turns out a local housing need figure of 880 dwellings per annum (dpa), which is only marginally higher than the existing 850 dpa planned for in the adopted Local Plan. 

Adopted Local Plan

During the production of the adopted Basingstoke and Deane Local Plan 2011-2029, the council identified its own level of objectively assessed housing need (OAHN) and attempted to justify various figures including 594 dpa^[2] and 748 dpa^[3] which were based on the selection of assumptions leading to the lower ends of the OAHN range. 

The submission version of the Local Plan made provision of 748 dpa, despite evidence to support a higher OAHN of 807 dpa having been recommended by officers^[4]. The Local Plan Inspector called an exploratory meeting and asked a number of telling questions which indicated clearly to the council that he would be unable to find the plan sound unless it made provision for an OAHN more aligned to the mid-range (in the region of 853 dpa). 

Emerging Local Plan

This current situation of the council delaying its Local Plan progress, with a view to seeking justification for a figure lower than the 880 dpa indicated by the standard methodology has clear parallels with what happened last time. 

However, this time the level of local housing need to be planned for is much less open to interpretation with national policy clearly stating, “To determine the minimum number of homes needed, strategic policies should be informed by a local housing need assessment, conducted using the standard method in national planning guidance - unless exceptional circumstances justify an alternative approach which also reflects current and future demographic trends and market signals.”^[5] 

So, what credible reasons could Basingstoke and Deane have for seeking to depart from the standard method? It is hard to say and we will have to await the demographic analysis that will inevitably be produced based on the latest Census outputs. 

Nonetheless, the borough has good prospects of being able to sustainably accommodate 880 dpa in the forthcoming plan period, as had been shown in earlier iterations of the Local Plan.

• The council has already produced a draft planning strategy which shows how that level of development could be accommodated. It indicates a major expansion to the south-west of Basingstoke, further expanding the Manydown allocation, a major new community at Popham Airfield, urban extensions to the east and north of Basingstoke, and allocation of a housing requirement to the most sustainable towns and villages across the remainder of the borough.
• The borough is unaffected by Green Belt, only around one-third is AONB, and only a small proportion has been impacted by the nitrates issue affecting much of South Hampshire. There are issues of water quality affecting the River Loddon which the council states limit Basingstoke town’s ability to sustainably accommodate higher levels of development. 
• It is also worth remembering that during the course of the last Local Plan examination, the authority found sites for the extra 100 dpa required over the plan period to achieve a sound plan. 

The council’s press release states they are going to make a strong case to the Government around housing need. It seems they are pinning their hopes on the new Government reforming the way that housing need is calculated to reduce the target. Unlikely as this is, any such approach fails to grasp that the level of need remains high and without a five-year housing land supply, house prices will continue to rise and affordability will worsen. 

Looking forward

So now we have a housing crisis, an energy crisis and cost of living crisis at a national level, yet local authorities continue to delay making proper provision for housing, energy, infrastructure and jobs through their Local Plans. 

In the short term, this will result in more development coming forward outside of the plan-led system, seeking to benefit from application of the tilted balance while the council lacks a demonstrable five-year housing land supply. Many of the sites proposed in the draft strategy will probably eventually come forward anyway. The towns and villages outside of Basingstoke will have to wait for the Local Plan before they can make any real progress on their Neighbourhood Plans or Reviews.

If you would like to discuss these Local Plans in more detail, please get in touch with Alison Young or Tim Burden.

13 October 2022

[1] Housing numbers concerns prompt more local plan work (BDBC, 28 September 2022)
[2] In the Pre-Submission Core Strategy 2006-2027 (Consultation Draft February 2012). The council stated this reflected consultation responses that indicated a lower level of growth than in recent years, and was based on inward and outward migration being balanced over the plan period. 
[3] In the Submission Version Local Plan 2011-2029.
[4] A report to the Overview and Scrutiny Committee in January 2014 recommended an OAHN figure of 807 dpa                                                                                                                                                                                                    [5] NPPF paragraph 61